Solar Minimum

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Partners,

We are keeping busy with plenty of summer projects and are now deciding which ones aren't going to make the cut this summer. Having spent the better part of the past two weeks repairing tile issues--which in large part were caused buy the rains this spring--we feel that a lot of effort is going into fixing and healing things caused by the weather the past 12 months (3rd wettest in IL on record). We are also down to just a few thousand bushels of corn to deliver, that being made possible by more normal river levels. Usually by July 1 we have the bins empty. but we’ve still been getting the equipment cleaned up and checked over from this planting season (lots of power washing for Josh, Aaron and Daniel). We have a few upgrade projects at the tower bin site to complete, and are holding out hope for some time on the lake. Yikes! School starts in 2 weeks!

Solar Minimum—google it. Apparently that is part of the reason for the cooler weather affecting the growing season. Crop conditions are struggling. we received less than 1" of rain in July, and there is very little in the next two-week forecast. The late corn is now tasseling and thankfully the cooler weather is providing some relief. The late beans are certainly short. The weather into mid-September will determine their fate. Thank goodness we were able to plant early for a few days with our two planters. The early planted fields look decent and will yield well although not above trendline. We are spraying insecticide with all the fungicide we are applying to help the plants fight the added stress of the Japanese beetle invasion. One benefit of the dryness is we are keeping up much better with the yard mowing. ;)

Nationally we are wondering where the trade battle will end. The demand side of the equation is being hammered each week with ethanol plant closings and export reductions. The livestock sector is looking at shrinking margins and now the feed supply is being curtailed. Hay supplies are tight and pastures around there are already being supplemented. No one ever said this job is boring!

Family is busy and preparing for the new school year. Found time for a Cubs-Cards game (courtesy of Compeer) and hope for a few times at the lake yet this summer. Ali still has another month at bringfido.com. Marcus and family had a great and relaxing time in upstate NY. Hoping for a day at the state fair.

Keep in touch—all questions and comments welcome.

Fall prices:

Corn 3.82

Soybeans 8.18


Steve

Knee High by the Fourth of July

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Partners,

With Fourth of July festivities behind us, we are back to normal busy summer pace. Still trying to get some late side dressing done, bit of spot spraying to do, and lots of grain to haul now that water levels have dropped and river terminals are open again. We had a very few tassels detected in our early corn on July 5th. First time in many years that no corn tasseling is happening yet on Independence Day.

One bright spot is that Dakota, one of our college students, passed his CDL exam. That will really help with all the grain hauling we have to do this summer now that barges can transverse the Mississippi and Illinois river system. We have quite a list of summer projects that will have to be pared-down with a late start. Lots of tile holes and water-damaged waterways to repair, along with bin and building maintenance.

Talking about the Chinese tariff situation is sounding like a broken record. This past week marked the one year anniversary of the dispute. There is a big tropical storm brewing in the gulf that might head up into the midwest. Some weather forecasters are already giving odds for an earlier-than-normal frost. Plenty of stuff to keep an eye on this summer.

Local 4-H fair is this week and we are taking a calf and baked goods. Details next post. Getting scheduled for some days off to unwind and ready for the upcoming harvest. It was good to celebrate our independence with family and friends and plenty of food.

Fall prices:

Corn 4.30

Soybeans 8.64


Stay cool and keep in touch!

Steve

Showtime

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Partners,

We officially quit planting on June 14. Then the rains came again and covered a lot of our replant work with water again! Now this past weekend we received another 3+ inches of rain. The equipment getting the most use these days are the sump pumps and the job we are getting good at is putting up the “Road Closed” signs. We still have about 400 acres of corn to sidedress with NH3. Over half of the beans are needing sprayed with a second pass--the weeds are growing quite well. The nearby markets have reacted the most to the crop problems which is preventing many crop pricing opportunities for 2020 and beyond. The Illinois river has been closed for over 6 weeks now. This is going to back up old crop delivery into new crop harvest and will definitely cause some long lines at the river terminals. Marketing this crop and the next several years’ will have important implications on future profitability. We attended three marketing meetings this past week.

There is great concern in the livestock industry about adequate supplies of feed for the next year. There are estimates of between 7 and 10 million acres that will be taken for corn Prevent Plant. Hay harvest has been quite delayed and we have lost at least one cutting of hay—nationwide. Areas that were not able to plant at all will have trouble sourcing nearby corn for grain and corn for silage, and feed costs will be substantially higher. We must sustain the livestock industry through this time, or in the future we will have even less demand for our crops. The harvest rules for Prevent Plant acres have been eased as far as haying or grazing. Planting a crop that has a chance to be feed-worthy will be challenging with the continuing rains. There are reports that half of China's hog herd has been wiped out with Asian Swine Flu. And projections that next year’s corn-planted acres could be over 100 million add to concern that we will immediately overproduce and get into a supply glut again.

We will be watching with much anticipation the talks this week between President Trump and the Chinese Premier. We need to find level playing field rules and keep both countries on a path of economic stability.

Show season has begun. Dog obedience was last week and coming up are bucket calf and food items. Alison is learning a lot about doggie vacations for her internship at bringfido.com. And Grandpa is reminiscing and telling stories about the other years that were weather stressors like this one--74, 83, 88 and 93 are the ones that really stand out.


Fall Prices:

Corn 4.43

Soybeans 8.93

Questions and comments welcome!

Steve

What a Planting Season

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Partners,

Pulled out of the field with the bean planter for the last time Tuesday night. We are leaving some small wet areas of corn and bean acres which we might plant cover crops into when they dry up, but for now we are calling planting complete. The local weather station says we are at 179% of normal rainfall for the year. Our area is at 99% planting completion after lots of activity this past week. We replanted approximately 130 acres of corn and 85 acres of beans. Planting a field a second time is not very exciting! We are struggling to get hay baled this week with equipment challenges and weather issues. The forecast is for rain for most of the rest of this week. We do count ourselves blessed in that we are able to get most everything in the ground; several farmers across the USA we know were not so fortunate. The bean planter was pulled out 11 times (not that I was counting). Most of the bean fields were entered at least twice, planting dry areas first and then going back for wet spots. Tiling paid huge dividends this year--both in field access and the way the crop was able to emerge in all the moisture. We have identified several spots that need more in the near future if these weather anomalies are the norm. It will take years to heal the erosion and sediment from the extreme rain.

USDA is hard at work on the next round of Market Facilitation Payments to prop up falling commodity prices. Tying all of the rules into Prevent Plant guidelines and trying not to distort the market are proving formidable challenges. Here in Illinois we have just seen the most anti-business legislation in decades enact lots of new taxes without curbing anything on the cost side.

And now we have legalized pot production and consumption, so all of our problems will seem much less severe.

Family doing well--Ali is going to South Carolina to work at bringfido.com for the summer. 4-H show season is upon us. Now with planting complete a more normal lifestyle will emerge. Looking forward to a summer of fun times with family and friends.

Fall Prices:

Corn 4.28

Soybeans 8.60

Keep in touch,

Steve

Here We Go

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Partners,

We are about a week away from start of harvest. This will be one of the earliest starts ever with the rapid maturation of the corn (about 10 days ahead of average) and beans (about week early). After getting most of our summer project list wrapped up and getting horses delivered to their new home at Marcus's house, we are getting pre-harvest tasks checked off. Cleaning bins (for seed beans - must pass inspection), combine out of storage and in shop for technology update and installation, semi maintenance, grains system maintenance, final mowing of season for roadsides and waterways, lime hauling, school startup and equipment preparation. Ideally we'd like to test everything out this week, but will probably go to field day after Labor Day. Will let you know yield trends when we start.

Tariffs are a big issue in farm country. Soybean prices are down about 1.75 since the trade war talk started (hence the 1.65 proposed compensation from USDA). Another fallout of the soy issue is that we are facing basis bids twice as wide as normal. Dicamba re-certification for soybeans is a big talking point. The farm bill in congress is being debated mainly for the SNAP portion of the bill. Several crop tours are coming in with yield forecasts of a good corn crop (but not as big as last year) and a record soybean prospect. Pod counts in the soybean fields are highest ever which has led to the lowest prices in 6 years.

Family is doing well. Homeschool has started in St Louis, and locally Trinity started classes this past week. Alison goes to Chicago for orientation September 22 and class starts October 1 after a great sendoff party 2 weeks ago. Charles and Wilma celebrated their 65th wedding anniversary with a family celebration and community reception. 

Fall Bids:

Corn 3.25

Soybeans 7.65

Enjoy the fall weather!

Steve