Changing Times

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Partners,

Phyllis and I attended the annual meeting of the Association of Agricultural Production Executives (AAPEX) this past week.  

The keynote address was given by Marci Rossell, PhD (Former Chief Economist at CNBC & Leading Financial Expert). She is currently the Senior Economic Advisor for Delphin Investments. I will bullet-point some of what she shared so you can have a quick read about her observations and opinions about developments in the world.

  • Since the November election there have been great returns in the stock market because of anticipation of tax cuts and deregulation in financial sector -- this is probably not going to happen 
  • There will be a lot more volatility in the stock market
  • A Border Tax Adjustment (tariff) will strengthen the dollar which will cripple ag exports even more
  • The European Union is not an 'Optimal Currency Union' (she had several points about this), and the euro is failing (Brexit only the beginning)
  • Mass communication is contributing to the breakdown of commonality of the US
  • China is giving way to India economically -- India is the "fasting growing economy on the planet"
  • India has a youthful and entrepreneurial population and is accepting of the West
  • Over the next 15 years, the Boomer generation will give way to the Millennial generation because they (Millennials) outnumber the GenXers.  Millennials are generally laid back/not in a hurry about life; tend to be risk adverse, and typically have not chosen to vote. Their generation was hit hard by the downturn in 2008 and have experienced unemployment in a way the GenX generation has not.
  • one key question is will the millennials become more conservative as they age (like the Boomers have)

Her presentation was excellent, and very fast-paced so it was challenging to jot notes. This is just an overview of what I heard.

On the farm we are taking advantage of the open weather to cut brush, haul grain, prep equipment for spring, paint a tractor, relax the pace a bit before spring, get inputs delivered, and finalizing field operation plans for 2017.

Families are doing well. Marcus is taking a leadership development class and planning a family trip during spring break. Phyllis and I are appreciating our 40th year of marriage.

Fall prices:

Corn 3.64

Soybeans 10.17

Keep in touch,

Steve