Something for Everyone at the Ag Summit
/
Phyllis and I recently returned from the DTN Summit in Chicago - here are the quick takes from the presenters and their topics.
DTN 2016
China and World markets
U.S. Will lead the way in global macro economy
Global demographics that drive food demand are still in place
For global markets there is a supply issue-not a demand problem
Farm Safety Nets & Farm Bill
2012 farm bill not passed till 2014-expect next bill passed quicker as economy worsens
For next cycle a late farm bill will be almost as bad as no farm bill
Farm Policy battle lines- payment limits, crop ins, regulations, snap vs farm programs
Tax Habits - Built to Last
Possible revisions to tax law and estate taxes
Dealing with the IRS-don't go it alone
Lessons on tax planning-need to do every year
Using Precision Ag
Food production must increase by 70% by 2050
We are competing with lower cost producers around the world
Weather
Ocean warming back up now-trending toward normal growing season-trend line yields
Teamwork fundamentals - astronaut Mike Mullane
1. Guard against normalization of Deviance
--Challenging but attainable goals
2. Responsibility & Accountability
--See something-Say something-Do something
3. Courageous self-leadership
--We are better than we think & so is our team!
Checking Ag's Vital Signs - Farm Credit & Rabobank
These financial times are not 80s ag economy repeated
Continued corn & soybean losses in 17 & 18
Producers will exit - just shifts acres to better producers
Need 6-8 mil acres to come out of production-CRP?
The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not turbulence ; but to act with yesterday's logic
Market Outlook-Darrin Newsom
Bean outlook not bullish technically or fundamentally
Ditto corn-stocks to use over 17%-ending stocks 2.4 billion bushels
Wheat is a very ill sister--record stocks globally
Challenges are gifts from Heaven
To achieve without risk is to win without glory
Problems are only opportunities in work clothes
Corn is strong cash price against record stocks
SB weak cash against record demand
Futures & cash will only decouple for so long
Don't look for soybean basis rally throughout this year
Action-buy Dec 3.80 puts .25-.30
Action-HTA 2017 bean production at 10.30
Lots of bullets here - if you have any questions or comments please contact us - very easy through the website!
Have a great holiday season!
Steve
