Snowed Out

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Partners,

Got in a few days of field work last week. By Saturday night all bean ground was sprayed and most NH3 applied. Soil conditions aren’t bad, and a year like this is when our tiling efforts are paying off. We worked till the rain/snow started Sunday morning, and above are some pics of what it looked like at noon. Looks like we might have one day this week to spray. 

Tariffs are still in place and stress is showing in farm country. The pork market is very strong since China has lost 19% of their hog herd to Asian Swine Flu and is actively buying up world pork supplies to field their population. Markets are nervous about the weather but most longer-term forecasts have some windows of dryer, warmer weather in them.

Alison played her first Rugby tournament last weekend! We are eagerly anticipating the celebration this weekend of our risen Savior.

Have a great weekend and keep in touch!

Steve 

We Love History

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Partners,

Many of you know of the deep interest Phyllis and I have in history. So what could be more fitting than the celebration of the sesquicentennial of our home farm, owned by the Doll family for 150 years! In the 1860s, Phillip and Wilhelmina Doll brought their family from Germany to the United States to seek out a new life. They had their sights set on Hermann, Missouri, but eventually ended up returning to a town they had passed through on their journey: Bushnell, Illinois. Philip put his family (wife & 5 children) up in the Bushnell hotel and spent considerable time seeking the perfect homestead in the Bushnell area. He wrote up an agreement with a Mr. McDonald, who was the owner of the farm we live on today. In March 1869 he started operating the Doll Farm.

The original 160 acres was perfect for the livestock farm Phillip envisioned, with a creek running through it, pasture land, and rich black farmland to raise abundant crops for feeding out the cattle and hogs he raised. The first summer here he made his home in an overturned wagon box while he started a house for his family and continued to build his farm into a respected livestock and crop operation. The family line of ownership continued with Phillip’s son, also named Phillip, then two generations of Harvey Dolls, and now the current owners, Phyllis and her brother, Phillip, are the 5th generation of Dolls to have their name on the property. Our son Marcus is the 6th generation to live in this house (as a child), work in these buildings, and plant and harvest these fields. We will be sharing more stories of our rich 150-year history throughout the year here on our blog.

Currently, we are servicing tractors, hooking up planters, taking delivery of seed, creating prescription planting maps, and getting ready for planting season. The weather outlook is a wet one so we anticipate short planting windows to get the crop in the ground. Since we have only about 25% of our nitrogen applied we have that gap to fill also. We think we have the planting capability to put the crop in the ground in 7 days. Adding the second planter last year really added capacity to the mix. We are preparing the team for a busy time.

Sounds like progress with China trade talks. Some are fearful that the president might walk out when the leaders get together to finalize the deal. In my opinion there should have been some walking before. A bad deal for the US is worse than no deal, in my opinion. The commodity markets are anticipating acres switched to soybeans for the 2019 crop season. The flooding of the river system is causing some shipping delays. We have been informed that the Corp of Engineers is closing all locks on the Illinois River north of Beardstown in the summer of 2020. That will be challenging for grain sales.

Family is doing well. This month we’ve helped celebrate our youngest grandson’s first birthday, and Ali’s 19th birthday. Ali just finished her Winter quarter at UChicago (we did not pay anyone to have her admitted).

Fall Prices:

Corn 3.66

Soybeans 8.83

Keep in touch! Please 'Like' & comment below.

Steve

Equipment

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Partners,

We are keeping busy with lots of winter work, diligently trying to keep our equipment costs low to stay competitive. Hence we operate a lineup of modern used equipment. Our sprayer has been through the shop and now the combine is in process. All of our major pieces of equipment are professionally inspected each year and a list of worn or questionable parts is developed. We then use our labor force to upgrade the projects on the list we are capable of completing. The bigger, more involved tasks are performed at the dealership. When each tractor, combine, sprayer, planter, and head is put into storage it is ready to go to the field when planting/spraying/harvest season comes.

The lure of new paint is one we try to avoid. Just like the depreciation hit new vehicles take the first two years, we try to be wise about the true cost of our equipment lineup over time. We believe our equipment capacity is adequate for the number of acres we farm and labor available, but there is not much margin for breakdowns or time lost to equipment malfunctions. We did some major upgrading 6 years ago when we moved up to 24-row planting equipment. Of all our major pieces of equipment, the planter is the only thing we purchased new.

Commodity prices have been trading a very narrow range for several weeks now. Corn and beans are poised to break out either higher or lower soon. I will discuss weather soon in another post. The tariffs/trade war situation with China is ongoing but showing some positive movement toward resolution. The first big step will be getting the Chinese to admit they have been bending the rules in the first place. We hope Congress approves the new USMCA agreement; seems to be lots of positive things in it for Ag. The new Farm Bill is being implemented and apparently there is a lot more to it than just a renewal of the 2012 act—a lot of pages with new details. The weather pattern is causing some disruptions in the Midwest for river traffic and grain deliveries. We are thankful we had very little grain to deliver in January-February.

Family doing well. Lots of missed school days with all the weather issues. (That is one thing the homeschooled kids miss out on is snow days and make-up days.) We do still have 14 head of heifers to care for so there has been some struggle with frozen waterers this past month.

Fall prices

Corn--3.73

Soybeans--8.96

Keep in touch,

Steve

New Year

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Partners,

The new year is moving so quickly! We are diligently finishing up last year’s records, getting W-2s and 1099s out, looking back at what we learned last year, and making plans about what to adjust for 2019. Our office seems to be a beehive of activity with some late nights involved. Schools are all back in session but there have been several late starts and snow/ice days this past week. The official snowfall this past weekend was around 14" and more is forecasted for tomorrow. Marcus attended the Top Producer meeting in Chicago this week and brought home some new management ideas. Steve was at the Precision Planting meeting in Tremont Thursday for catching up on the latest updates in planter technology.

The government shutdown has affected us a bit. The local FSA office is closed but will reopen for three days next week; but there is very little traffic through there this time of year anyway. The soybean market is very volatile according to who-says-what about trade negotiations with China. It seems that agriculture supports a border wall but also wants a rewrite of immigration policy to allow foreign workers access to our labor market legally. Now the leadership of the house wants to take a vacation! All of this political brinkmanship is quite the show to watch. 

All children and grandchildren back in school -  at home, elementary school, or college . All the snow days are enjoyed (except for the makeup work). Lots of sledding and snowman building. Phyllis and i hope to make it south for a bit in February. 

Current prices:

Corn 3.56

Soybeans 8.54

Fall Prices:

Corn 3.68

Soybeans 9.00

Be careful in the winter weather!

Steve

Notes from the 2018 DTN Summit

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Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue

  • Trusting but verifying China trade reform

  • China rising storm

  • China growth rate lowest in over a decade

  • Huge food deficits

  • Rural to city population move continuing along with higher food standards

  • Asian swine flu causing major disruption of meat consumption & prices

Grain Marketing

  • # of farms in US has declined 23% in 30 years

  • # of acres farmed has declined 3%

  • Bunge-1818

  • Louis Dreyfus-1851

  • Cargill-1865

  • Average managed futures fund- 4.5 years lifespan

Jim Carroll, Futurist

  • 7 out of 10 children will work in jobs not existing today

  • Multiple trends merge, speed accelerates

  • Massive transformation, crazy ideas, bold thinking

  • Every industry becomes a software industry

  • Moore's law defines innovation velocity

  • Science exponentiates

  • Strategies scrambled

  • Reinvention dominates

  • Time collapses with advanced methodologies

  • Global trends globalize

  • Science, health and tech get married

  • Packaging changes, packaging connects

  • Gamers game, virtualization emerges

  • FarmVille

  • Generations change

  • Think big, start small, scale fast

Blockchain

  • Bitcoin or some digital currency will become common

  • Connected computers reaching agreement over shared data

  • Public Key Encryption

  • Any supplier of leafy greens to Walmart must use blockchain

  • Product traceability in 2.2 seconds

  • Market transparency

  • Security Efficiency

Improving Your Family's Business Together

  • Ownership vs Management

  • The change from business to legacy

  • Healthy communication

  • Articulated expectations

  • Agreement on goals

  • Accept & respect

  • Professional development & emotional intelligence

  • Understanding business performance

2019 Weather-Rolling Sevens, Bryce Anderson

  • Weather looking like 7th growing season with no big problems

  • There is enough corn acreage planted that we are affecting summer weather patterns

  • Slowest harvest since 2009

  • 70% chance of weak El Niño into summer of 2019

  • Colder than normal winter - winter lasting into March

  • Cold & reduced snow

  • Global warming continues - not so much in Midwest US

  • More weather volatility coming-heavier spring rains, drier warmer summers

Market Outlook, Todd Hultman

  • In 2015 extreme poverty fell to 10% of world population (>$1.90/day)

  • World demand for soybeans up 260% in 30 years

  • Cash corn price range estimate 2.40-3.80

  • Cash wheat price range estimate 3.80-5.50

  • Cash soybean price range estimate 6.50-9.50